A component of the imagined venture idea is represented either as a potential group of users/consumers or as customers/buyers in the market. In many cases, this assumption of the existence of a potential market for the offering is implicit. But how do we know if a market indeed exists?
We can debate that we know but fact remains that we will never be able to conclusively claim that a market exists before it is realized. What do we assume when we say there is a market then? Without a market, how can we really claim that the business has a total addressable market (TAM) or a service addressable market (SAM) of a specific size? If we carefully look at the numbers, the estimation of these TAM and SAM are made through the multiplication of a potential offering price with the number of individuals who have access to the offering. However, the question of ‘how do we know that it exists’ is still unanswered.
Here, it is important to understand what a market exactly is. A simplistic case is that of a mandi or a local market where sellers with different commodities set up their shops and buyers visit these places to purchase the commodities. While there is a designated place and set of rules that run the functioning of the market, it is ultimately all about people.
But people exist everywhere, don’t they? How do you know which people are your market? You will never know who your market is, until you engage with them. As entrepreneurs, it is important to be grounded. Speak with people, interact, and develop your criteria to understand who is a typical individual in your market. Is there a quick way to identify an individual who fits into the market you want to address? If you can identify them, the next question would be how you would serve them. Can you serve each one of them? Who are the people you can serve now, or later and why?
Answering the above set of questions helps ground your market assumptions and size in the real world. It is almost futile to look for numbers and the projection of growth from public sources like Gartner or IDC. You can never be certain of those assumptions. How realistically would those numbers fit into your calculations of the market? And, just like you, many look at the numbers and get excited.
A better means, thus, is to have a true sense of the ground realities and develop your market size and associated calculation. You know your assumptions and it is easy to make estimates based on these ground realities and you would become much more realistic about your numbers.
Ask yourself:
Have you made the estimate of the potential size of your market?
Who is and who is not going to be in your potential market? Do you know how much the individual would be spending?
Where and when would you find your customer? How realistic are your assumptions about the market?